Sunday, June 4, 2017

Rainfall 2017

Rainfall 2017

Under the fear of El Niño, IMD played safe predicting 96% (+_ 5%) of the LPA (long period average of 89 cm) this year. But Indian Nino, IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) has come to our rescue in the initial months of the season. The warmer western ocean (Arabian Sea) will pull more rainfall to the western part-sea. Kerala, Karnataka, are likely to be safe this year as they receive most of their rainfall in the month of June and July. Monsoon onset over Kerala on 30 May and it is progressing well as per the forecasts of the IMD. With the start of pre monsoon showers, Gujarat is expecting onset of monsoon around 12-14 June over South Gujarat. However, the major part of the State (east, central, north Gujarat and Kutch) is dependent on the systems generated from the Bay of Bengal. If IOD makes the western ocean warmer and the eastern ocean cooler, it may be a worrysome condition for some parts of the country.

El Niño (heating up Pacific Ocean and reducing sea surface temperature of Indian Ocean, reverse the direction of monsoon winds) signals are uncertain, as La Niña ended in January 2017; Australia and India are praying for it's neutrality.

On 14 April 2017, on Vishu Day, I wrote about the relationship between flowering of cassia fistula and the date of onset of rainfall over Kerala.

"Humans are dependent on rainfall for food. It is the celebration of prayers to the almighty requesting him to blessed the season with good rain without any natural calamities. Vishnu God to preserve and protect the creatures. It is the end of Spring season and start of Summer. It is a flowering season of beautiful yellow flower tree, Cassia Fistula (Garmalo, Amaltas). It's Yellow flowers are used in the Pooja of the day. From today to the 45th of the day, i.e., 29 May 2017, the monsoon will onset on the coast of Kerala."

IMD predicted 1 June. Rain God has his own accord, arrived on 30 May.

Mars is not seen in the sky in nights these days, as it is moving ahead of Sun. The closeness of Mars-Sun (angarak yoga) has heated up the temperature. Let's pray that this Sun-Mars combo doesn't affect our monsoon, El Niño remains neutral and IOD support the Rain God to shower his blessings over us.

2 June 2017


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