Monday, February 14, 2022

Is Ukraine an epicentre of WW-III?


Is Ukraine an epicentre of WW-II
Ukraine, a country of Eastern Europe is bordered by Belarus to the north, Russia to the east, the Sea of Azovand the Black Sea to the south, Moldovaand Romania to the southwest, and HungarySlovakia, and Poland to the west. In the far southeast, Ukraine is separated from Russia by the KerchStrait, which connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea.

It became part of Soviet Union after WW-II and became independent in August 1991 after dissolution of USSR. It is a small country with an area of 603,548 km2 and population of 44 million. It’s a poor country with 45% of its population fall below poverty line. Ukraine is the ‘bread basket of Europe and Russia. Ukraine produced 25% of all agricultural output in the former Soviet Union. Today, Ukraine exports substantial amount of grain(wheat), vegetables, sugar beets, sunflower seeds, milk and meat.

Strategically it is very important for Russia to acquire a status of an Empire. Apart from the wheat basket, the gas supply lines pass through Ukraine. It’s Sevastopol Marine Trade Port, a warm warm port of important for Russia to trade with Europe and world. Russia loses importance and strength by losing Ukraine.

There was no turmoil till it had Govt of pro Russia. But as soon as the present set up moved towards west and moving forward to join NATO, Russia became assertive. NATO is a military union which has 30 members countries (28 from Europe plus USA and Canada). It is to note that Ukraine is surrounded by NATO countries to the west, north and south. Russia is approaching it through Belarus and USA is trying to protect it through Poland. Germany is not ready to enter into the war at present because of its economic interests of getting gas from Russia. Other members of NATO are not assertive except USA. It is not easy for them to get liquified gas from USA as there is no infrastructure and it may cost 40-50% higher compared to the gas supply from Russia. Russian economy is completely dependent of Gas export therefore it can’t allow this to happen. Losing Ukraine to Russia is an economic gain to Russia and NATO member countries of Europe, but it is a big loss to the democracy and independence of Ukraine and the hegemon USA. 

East Europe has traditionally been the centre of great power rivalry. World War One started with Serbia. World War Two with Poland. Is Ukraine next? This time, it is a fight for bread and trade (warm water port) by Russia. 

Russia didn’t support India during Sino-India war of 1962. As India is feeling more comfortable with QUAD (USA, India, Australia, Japan), Russia-China are coming closer. The hegemon USA is losing strength therefore the new hegemony of China-Russia has greater room to dominate Asia and Europe. 

Let’s look at the planetary positions of these days. Saturn is transiting in Capricorn, Jupiter in Aquarius, Rahu in Taurus, Ketu in Scorpion, Mars-Venus in Sagittarius, Sun in union with Jupiter in Aquarius, Mercury in union with Saturn in Capricorn and Moon in Gemini. The Kalsarpa is broken by Moon moving out but the situation won’t ease till Sun moves out in May 2022. April-May are otherwise going to be very important months as Rahu moves to Aries and Ketu to Libra on 12 April,  Jupiter transits to Pieces on 28 April, Saturn transits to Aquarius on 30 April, Sun crosses the degree of Rahu on 13 May and transit to Taurus on 15 May. Mars the planet of war is coming in the union of Saturn in Capricorn from 26 February abd will maintain the union in Capricorn and Aquarius till 17 May. They will be in closer union from 20 March to 15 April and very close during last week of March and first week of April with higher impactful days of 5-6 April, the tension and events in the region may escalate. However diplomacy will win over the time and things may get relaxed from 17th May onwards in 2022. 

Man has gone mad, put the population under threat of COVID for two years and now building threat of nuclear war in 2022. Hope the Arm Forces (uniform) rest and diplomats win. 

13 February 2022


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