Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Monsoon 2012 Forecaste

Pre monsoon, it is a time for meteorologists and Jyotishis to predict rainfall during the coming monsoon season. The IMD in its first stage forecast (April) predicted 47% probability of normal rainfall and 24 % probability of below normal rainfall year. It will issue second stage forecast in June 2012. The Japanese and European meteorologists predicted deficient rainfall in India. The Anand Agriculture University has predicted 130% rainfall in Gujarat based on data analysis of 100 years. 

The weak La-Nina condition started weakening and it is in transition towards Enso. It is presumed that Enso neutral condition will prevail during the monsoon 2012. This is an indicator of normal or little below normal year. But all eyes are focused on Peru to see the movement of Al-Niño. It brings draught and deficient year for the country. There is no set pattern of Al-Niño. It may occur at 9-7-5-3 year’s intervals. The hot water flow in the Pacific 

Ocean affects the sea surface temperature of Indian Ocean and disturbs the system of making clouds and air current resulting in less precipitation.

Global warming has increased the sea surface temperature that has increased the precipitation and cyclonic events during last decade in many parts of the world. 

Let us analyse, the planetary conditions during the monsoon season 2012 (1/6 to 30/09). 

Retrogative Saturn in Virgo will become margi on 27/6/12 and moves to Libra in exaltation on 5/8/12. Rahu is in watery sign Scorpio during the season. Ketu and Jupiter are in Taurus during the season. Mars is in Leo till 21/6/2012 moves to Virgo (22/6 to 14/8), Libra (15/8 to 28/9) and Scorpio (29/9 to 9/11). Venus is retrogative in Taurus till 28/6 become margi and will move to sign Gemini (1/8 to 1/9) and watery sign Cancer (2/9/ to 28/9). 

Watery planets Venus and Moon and semi-watery Jupiter are very important for good rains. 

Jupiter in Pisces got unprecedented flood in Pakistan in 2010. 

During June, Saturn the planet of wind is in earth sign Virgo (retrogative till 25/6) and Mars the planet of hotness is in fire sign Leo (upto 21/6) are aspecting watery signs Scorpio and Pisces; Rahu the planet for drying effect is placed in watery sign Scorpio; Jupiter, Venus, Ketu and Sun (14/6-15/7) are in earth sign Taurus; are indicators of windy weather and less rainfall till 21/6. A good start is expected in the last week of June due to positive aspects of Jupiter and Venus (retrogative till 28/6) over watery sign Scorpio. Sun enters in Ardra nakshatra on 21/6/12 is expected to give a start of season in Gujarat. 

During July Saturn enters into Libra the sign of winds will aspect watery sign Cancer; Jupiter and Venus remains in Taurus aspecting watery sign Scorpio; Rahu’s presence in Scorpio; Mars in earth sign Virgo aspecting watery sign Pisces; Sun moving to Cancer from 15/7 are indicators of less than average rainfall.

During August Saturn in Libra, Jupiter in Taurus with Ketu, Venus in Gemini, Rahu in Scorpio, Mars in the first half in Virgo and in the second half in Lebra, Sun in Cancer in the first half and in Leo in the second half Vergo indicate less than average rainfall.

The period between 15/8/12 to 28/9/12 indicates Natural hazards as both Saturn and Mars occupy Libra, the sign of wind and governing western direction.

During September there Saturn in Libra, Jupiter in Taurus with Ketu, Venus in watery sign Cancer, Rahu in Scorpio, Mars in Lebra, Sun in Leo in the first half and in Virgo in the second half Virgo indicate more than average rainfall.

Moon will be moving into watery signs Pisces-Cancer-Scorpio will give a spell of 2-3 rainy days at the interval of 9 days (June:13,22 July: 1,10,19,28 August: 6,16,25 Sept: 3,12,21,30 Oct: 9,18,27). 

Overall 2012 will be near to average or below average rainfall year.

Shubham Bhavatu Kalyanam.




NB: Jyotish predictions are probability not necessarily reality


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