Saturday, May 9, 2015

Monsoon 2015 based on Holi Fire 2015

Monsoon 2015 based on Holi Fire 2015

There are different methods to forecast weather in India before the onset of Kharif season of agriculture in India. 

Two of the most-reliable predictors are based on Bhadli’s couplets on wind direction on two specific days: Akshaya Tritya and Holi. Interpretations of the wind direction on these days foretell monsoon, and also diseases, pests, and expected yield of the crop for the season. 

End of winter and start of Spring celebrated as Holi the festival of colours. To keep safe from the outbreak of viral diseases like swineflu, people take rounds of the fire like a heat treatment to the body. Some people walk through the fire coal as part of rituals.

But the most important event for the farmers is to look at the direction where the flag falls down, that has kept at the top of the Holi Fire. It is an indicator of air direction on the full moon night of Fagun, the Hindu month.

And the weather forecast for the fall of flag and direction of Winds in any one of the following 9 directions is as per the following:

Wind Direction
1. North : Long Winter, Good Rains.
2. Northeast: Late start of Summer.
3. East: Irregular rains, below average.
4. Southeast: Draught
5. South: Medium Rain, Epidemics, livestock loss
6. South West: Monsoon below average
7. West: Monsoon Normal
8. Northwest: Very good monsoon with good crop.
9. Cyclonic wind from all directions: Famine

This year the flag fell down towards Southwest direction in Holi Fire at Palaj village of Gandhinagar, Gujarat. The wind direction was from Northeast. 

As the Summer started late this year, it has created uncertainty of rain forecast. Garmalo (Cassia Fistula / golden shower) trees blossom in Gandhinagar around 20-23 April 2015. Adding 45-50 days to this, Monsoon over Gujarat will onset around second week of June 2015. It means onset on Andamans on around 25 May, Kerala around 31st May, Mumbai around 10th May and Gujarat around same time before 22 June.

Let me try to see the Stars and predict Monsoon 2015 in my next mail. Till then, read the mails and enjoy life. 

Narmada and Mahi Pariej water grids with giant pumping works have saved Gujarat villages and towns from the problem of drinking water. Increased in irrigation facilities with two crops yields has eased the problem of fodder to animals. Growth has opened new employment opportunities and those left can come for Mnrega works. Life here is much better than British Days and before.

Shubham Bhavatu Kalyanam.

9 May 2015


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